Seth Guikema

Senior Analyst

Dr. Guikema is a risk and decision analyst specializing in risk and reliability analysis for complex infrastructure systems subject to natural hazards and deliberate attacks, modeling the effects of interactions within teams on the performance of technical systems, and environmental life-cycle analysis for complex systems. His research has been funded by the National Science Foundation, the Department of Energy, state agencies, and private utility companies. Dr. Guikema is an assistant professor in the Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering at Johns Hopkins University and has taught courses on risk and decision analysis, uncertainty modeling, and project management.


Ph.D., Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, 2003
M.S., Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, 1999
M.E. by thesis, Civil Engineering, University of Canterbury (New Zealand), 1999
B.S., Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, 1997

Selected Publications and Presentations


Samuel, A. and S.D. Guikema. 2012. “Resource Allocation for Homeland Defense: Dealing With the Team Effect,” Decision Analysis [accepted March 2012].

Guikema, S.D. and S.M. Quiring. 2012. “Hybrid Data Mining-Regression for Infrastructure Risk Assessment Based on Zero-Inflated Data,” Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Vol. 99, pp. 178-182.

S.D. Guikema. 2012. “Modeling Intelligent Adversaries for Terrorism Risk Assessment: Some Necessary Conditions for Adversary Models,” Risk Analysis. DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01737.x.

Rothschild, C., L. McLay, and S.D. Guikema. 2012. “Adversarial Risk Analysis with Incomplete Information: A Level-k Approach,” Risk Analysis. DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01701.x].

Nateghi, R*, S.D. Guikema, and S.M. Quiring. 2011. “Comparison and Validation of Statistical Methods for Predicting Power Outage Durations During Hurricanes,” Risk Analysis, Vol. 31, No. 12, pp. 1897-1906.

Booker, G., A. Sprintson, E. Zechman, C. Singh, and S. Guikema. 2010. “Efficient Traffic Loss Evaluation for Transport Backbone Networks,” Computer Networks, Vol. 54, No. 10, pp. 1683-1691.

Booker, G., J. Torres*, S.D. Guikema, A. Sprintson, and K. Brumbelow. 2010. “Estimating Cellular Network Performance During Hurricanes,” Reliability Engineering & System Safety. Vol. 95, No. 4, pp. 337-344.

Han, S.-R.*, S.D. Guikema, and S.M. Quiring. 2009. “Improving the Predictive Accuracy of Hurricane Power Outage Forecasts using Generalized Additive Models,” Risk Analysis, Vol. 29, No. 10, pp. 1443-1453.

Guikema, S.D. 2009. "Natural Disaster Risk Analysis for Critical Infrastructure Systems: An Approach Based on Statistical Learning Theory." Reliability Engineering and System Safety. Vol. 94, No. 4, pp. 855-860.

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