John F. Lathrop

Executive Principal Analyst

Dr. Lathrop has over forty years of experience in both the theoretical development and practical application of decision support technologies. His recent work combines advanced concepts of games against an adversary, multiattribute utility analysis and SME elicitation at the model architecture level. He has reviewed, built or added to ten terrorism risk assessments for DHS S&T, DOE and the Coast Guard.

He is 2017-18 Chair of the Applied Risk Management Specialty Group of the Society for Risk Analysis.  He is Chair and majority author of a document in progress by that group:  Principles, Guidelines and Core Knowledge for Analytic Support of Risk Management.


Ph.D., Dual: Economics and Experimental Psychology, University of Michigan, 1979
M.A., Experimental Psychology, University of Michigan, 1972
B.S., Physics, Harvey Mudd College, 1970

Selected Publications and Presentations

Lathrop, J. and B. Ezell, Validation in the Absence of Observed Events, Risk Analysis, 36(4) April 2016.  Special issue: Adversary Behavior: Validating the Models.

Lathrop, J. and J. Post, The Modeler Meets the SME: The challenge of integrating quantitative and qualitative models of terrorist decision making, Democracy and Security, 8 (3) September 2012.

Buede, D., S. Mahoney, B. Ezell and J. Lathrop, Using Plural Modeling for Predicting Decisions Made by Adaptive Adversaries, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 108 Fall 2012.

Lathrop, J. and R. Ross, Probabilistic adversary choice modeling for counter-terrorism strategy: Important problems and solutions, presentation to DHS DNDO and S&T, LLNL-PRES-421862, Official Use Only, Dec 2009.

Lathrop, J., T. Edmunds, M. Bland and A. Ross, Make, Buy, Steal Risk Management Model, MBS2.0, presentation to several audiences, LLNL-PRES-421422, OUO, Dec 2009.


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