Value-Focused Thinking Using Multobjective Decision Analysis



This course presents the methodology, practice, and art of multi-objective decision analysis. Decision analysis is the appropriate decision support technique for hard problems involving multiple stakeholders, complex value tradeoffs, significant outcomes, and major uncertainties.

The course topics include an introduction to decision analysis; the value proposition for a decision analysis study; Value-Focused Thinking principles; alternative generation techniques (including strategy generation tables and scenario planning); qualitative processes (including Gold, Platinum, and Silver Standard methods for value model development and affinity diagrams) and quantitative techniques for multi-objective decision analysis; underlying mathematical assumptions of multi-objective value and utility models; using spreadsheets to evaluate multi-objective value and utility models; quantifying uncertainty in decision analysis using probability and Monte Carlo simulation; use of multi-objective value analysis for resource allocation and portfolio analysis (combining multiple objective decision analysis, optimization, and Monte Carlo simulation); use of spreadsheet models to perform sensitivity analyses to critical parameters; understanding senior decision makers; and clearly and concisely presenting decision analysis results to senior DoD decision-makers.

Students work in teams to apply the course techniques to a current analysis problem they are working. Spreadsheet modeling is used extensively and military decision analysis applications are emphasized throughout the course. Course materials include text, bound copy of the course note, spreadsheet macros, and sample spreadsheet files.