A Brief Introduction to Correlation

The IDI Blog covers a broad spectrum of technical knowledge and ability.  Our topics range from introductory to advanced, pragmatic to philosophic.  This entry seeks to provide a quick refresher on correlation. Correlation is an aspect of inferential statistics that seeks to determine whether or not a relationship exists between [...]

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My Friend Murphy

I must tell you up front that I’m not known around my house as being particularly handy in the yard.  My wife and daughters will tell you how I destroyed our lawn mower by running over a ground rod and how I severed the cable from our TV satellite dish [...]

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Thinking Through the Chaos

A well documented, Decision Analysis based study is needed in only a small percentage of the many decisions that confront us.  However, the basic tenants of Decision Analysis can be applied to many of our non trivial decisions.  In other words, a “structured thinking” approach to making a decision.  I [...]

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What Is A Bayesian Belief Network?

Today’s post on the IDI Blog is an introduction to topic that is rapidly gaining traction in the analytical community:  Bayesian Belief Networks. A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is a way to represent a probability model. In such a network, variables appear as nodes and arcs between the nodes represent [...]

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Strategic Options: Iran’s Nuclear Program

The following paper was written April 29, 2014 just after the interim accord freezing Iran’s nuclear program had be reached. Strong debates over what course of action the United States should take inspired this analysis and a hypothetical “Strategic Options Memorandum” for the US National Security Advisor. Just over one [...]

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Do you want risk-based security analysis or security risk analysis?

There has been confusion as the worlds of risk management and the security analysis are increasingly mixed. The differences are simple: Security is the ability to accomplish specific protection objectives. Risk is the likelihood and severity of adverse effects. Combining them yields the possibility for more cost-effective security investment and [...]

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Validation in the absence of observed events: weapons of mass destruction (WMD) terrorism risk assessment models

Introduction The concepts we present here are based on ten years of experience involving nine specific Weapons of Mass Destruction Terrorism Risk Assessment Models (WMD-TRAMs) and the Lugar survey.   Each TRAM has one or more adversary choice components.  Each model has its own strengths, weaknesses, constraints, limitations, and assumptions.  The perspectives [...]

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Natasha Hawkins Receives Letter of Appreciation

Feb 5, 2016: Ms. Natasha Hawkins, Principal Analyst Innovative Decisions, Inc. receiving a Certificate of Appreciation from Director Firoved for her contribution to the National Biosurveillance Integration Center.   Ms. Hawkins has been instrumental in helping the Center analyze, determine, and draft its highest priority biosurveillance capability gaps and requirements. Although she [...]

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Congratulations to Bill Miller on the INCOSE Founders Award!

Each year INCOSE awards 1 of over 10,000 members of the organization the Founders Award. To no surprise, this prestigious award was given to Bill Miller this year for a life time of contributions to the systems engineering profession and community. Mr. Miller was recognized for his long-term and diverse support to [...]

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Sneak Peak - Excerpt from Improving Homeland Security Decisions coming soon in 2017!

Ever wondered how to validate a Terrorism Risk Assessment Model?  A defining risk of our time is the possibly growing capability of terrorist groups to fabricate and deliver weapons of mass destruction (WMDs). That risk is characterized by extreme possible consequences, including tens of thou- sands of fatalities and initiation [...]

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