IDI Publications 2018-08-22T01:32:29+00:00

IDI Publications

Journal Papers

Bauer, K., Parnell, G., & Meyers, D. (1999) Response Surface Methodology as a Sensitivity Analysis Tool in Decision Analysis. Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, 8, 162-180.

Booker, G., Sprintson, A., Zechman, E., Singh, C., & Guikema S. (2010) Efficient Traffic Loss Evaluation for Transport Backbone Networks. Computer Networks [accepted January 2010].

Booker, G., Torres, J., Guikema, S.D., Sprintson, A., & Brumbelow, K. (2009) Estimating Cellular Network Performance During Hurricanes. Reliability Engineering & System Safety. [accepted November 2009].

Bresnick, T.A., Buede, D.M., Pisani, A.A., Smith, L. L., & Wood, B.B. (1997) Airborne and Space-borne Reconnaissance Force Mixes: A Decision Analytic Approach. Military Operations Research, 3(4), 65-78.

Brown, R.V., Kelly III, C.W., Stewart, R.R., & Ulvila, J.W. (1977 May) A decision theoretic approach to predicting the timeliness of NATO response to an impending attack (U). Journal of Defense Research, Special Issue 77-l (Crisis Management), 126-135.

Brown, R.V., and J.W. Ulvila. “The role of decision analysis in international nuclear safeguards.” In P.C. Humphreys, O. Svenson, and A. Vari (Eds.), Analyzing and aiding decision processes. North-Holland, 1983, 91-103.

Buckshaw, D. L., Parnell, G.S., Unkenholz, W.L., Parks, D.L., Wallner, J.M., & Saydjari, O.S. (2005) Mission Oriented Risk and Design Analysis of Critical Information Systems. Military Operations Research, 10(2), 19-38.

Buede, D.M. (2005) Influence Diagrams: A Practitioner’s Perspective. Decision Analysis, 2(4), 235-237.

Buede, D.M. & Bresnick, T.A. (Nov-Dec 1992) Applications of Decision Analysis to the Military Systems Acquisition Process. Interfaces, 22(6), 110-125.

Delano, G., Parnell, G., Vance, M. & Smith, C. (August 2000) Quality Function Deployment and Decision Analysis: A R&D Case Study. International Journal of Operations and Production Management, 20(7), 591-690.

Dillon, R.L., John, R. & von Winterfeldt, D. (July-August 2002) Assessment of Cost Uncertainties for Large Technology Projects: A Methodology and an Application. Interfaces, 32(4), 52-66.

Dillon, Robin L., & Liebe, R.M. (March 2009) Invited Response to Cox’s Comment: Improving Risk-Based Decision Making for Terrorism. Risk Analysis, 29(3), 342-343.

Dillon, Robin L., Liebe, R.M. & Bestafka, T. (March 2009) Risk-Based Decision Making for Terrorism Applications. Risk Analysis, 29(3), 321-335.

Dillon, Robin L., Parnell, G.S., Buckshaw, D.L., Hensley (LTC), W.L., & Caswell (CAPT), D.J. (2008) Avoiding Common Pitfalls in Decision Support Frameworks for Department of Defense Analyses. Military Operations Research Journal, 13(2), 19-32.

Dillon, R.L. & Paté-Cornell, M.E. (January 2005) Including Technical and Security Risks in the Management of Information Systems: A Programmatic Risk Management Model. Systems Engineering.

Dillon, Robin L., M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, and Seth D. Guikema, “Optimizing Resource Allocations in a Project’s Development Phase: The DAPRAM model,” IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, Vol. 52, No. 3, August 2005, pp. 382-395.

Dillon, R.L., Paté-Cornell, M.E., & Guikema, S.D. (2005) Optimal Use of Budget Reserves to Minimize Technical and Management Failure Risks During Complex Project Development. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, Vol. 52, No. 3, 382-395.

Dillon, R.L., Paté-Cornell, M.E. & Guikema, S.D. (May/June 2003) Programmatic Risk Analysis for Critical Engineering Systems Under Tight Resource Constraints. Operations Research, 51(3), 354-370.

Dillon, R. L., & Tinsley, C.H. (August 2008) How near-misses influence decision making under risk: A missed opportunity for learning. Management Science, 54( 8), 1425-1440.

Dillon, R. L., & Tinsley, C.H. (December 2005) Interpreting Near-Miss Events. Engineering Management Journal, 17 (4), 42-46.

Ewing, P., Tarantino, W., & Parnell G. (2006 March) Use of Decision Analysis in the Army Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) 2005 Military Value Analysis. Decision Analysis, 3(1), 33-49.

Ezell, B.C, von Winterfeldt, D., Bennett, S., Sokolowski, J. & Collins, A.J. Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Terrorism Risk. Risk Analysis, Accepted: 14 January 2010.

Ezell, B.C.& von Winterfeldt, D.(March 2009) Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Bioterrorism Risk. Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science, 7(1).

Ezell,B.C. (2007) Critical Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Model (I-VAM). Risk Analysis, 27(3).

Ezell, B.C., Haimes, Y.Y, & Lambert, J.H. (2001) Risks of Cyber Attack to Water Utility Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition Systems. Military Operations Research Journal, 6(2).

Ezell,B.C., Farr,J.V. & Wiese, I. (2000) The Infrastructure Risk Analysis Model. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE): Journal of Infrastructure Systems,6(3).

Ezell, B.C., Farr, J.V.& Wiese, I. (2000) An Infrastructure Risk Analysis of a Municipal Water Distribution System. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE):Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 6(3).

Guikema, S.D. (2005) A Comparison of Risk Estimation Methods for Binary Systems. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 87(3), 365-376.

Guikema, S.D. (2007) Formulating Informative, Data-Based Priors for Bayesian Risk Analysis. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 92(4), 490-502.

Guikema, S.D. (2009) Sustainability and Resilience in Infrastructure Design and Management in Disaster Prone Regions. Science, 323(5919), 1302.

Guikema, S.D. & Aven,T. (2009) Assessing Risk from Intelligent Attacks: A Perspective on Approaches. Reliability Engineering and System Safety [accepted December 2009].

Guikema, S.D. & Paté-Cornell, M.E. (2002) The Assessment of the Effects of Biases on the Performance of a Portfolio of Missions. International Journal of Aerospace Management, 1( 4), 339-351.

Guikema, S.D. & Paté-Cornell, M.E. (2004) Bayesian Analysis of Launch Vehicle Success Rates. Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, 41(1), 93-102.

Guikema, S.D. & Paté-Cornell, M.E. (2005) Probability of Infancy Problems for Space Launch Vehicles. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 87(3), 303-314.

Imbeah, W. and Guikema, S.D. (2009) Construction Risk Analysis Using the Advanced Programmatic Risk Analysis Model (APRAM). Journal of Construction Engineering and Management [accepted July 2008].

Kobylski, G.C., Buede, D.M., Farr, J.V., & Peters, D. (2008). The Use of Dynamic Decision Networks to Increase Situational Awareness in Networked Battle Command. Military Operations Research, 13(2), 47-63.

Milke, M.W. & Guikema, S.D. (2007) Parameterized decision analysis of a single-criterion choice between a Do-Nothing Option and an Act-Now Option. Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems, 24(3), 179-191.

Mykytka, E., Auclair, P., & Parnell, G. (Spring 1996) Military Operations Research: Responding to Change. Military Operations Research, 2(1), 9-17

Owens, D., Parnell, G., and Bivins, R. (May-June 1996) Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) Drawdown Analyses. Operations Research, 44(3), 425-434.

Parnell, G. S., Borio, L. L., Brown, G. G., Banks, D., & Wilson, A. G. (2008, November 4) Scientists Urge DHS to Improve Bioterrorism Risk Assessment. Biosecurity and Bioterrorism Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science, Mary Ann Liebert, Inc., Volume 6, <http://www.liebertonline.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1089/bsp.2008.0930>.

Parnell, G. S., Borio, L. L., Cox, L. A., Brown, G. G., Pollock, S., & Wilson, A. G. (2009) Commentary, Response to Ezell and von Winterfeldt. Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science, Volume 7, Number 1, Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.,< http://www.liebertonline.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1089/bsp.2009.0927>.

Parnell, G., Frimpon M., Barnes, J., Kloeber, J., Deckro, R., & Jackson, J., (2001) Safety Risk Analysis of an Innovative Environmental Technology. Risk Analysis, 21(1), 143-155.

Parnell, G.S., Smith, C. M., Moxley, F. I. Intelligent Adversary Risk Analysis: A Bioterrorism Risk Management Model. Risk Analysis, 30(1), 32-48.

Paté-Cornell, M.E. & Dillon, R.L. (2001) Probabilistic Risk Analysis for the NASA Space Shuttle: A Brief History and Current Work. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 74(3), 345-352.

Paté-Cornell, M. E. & Dillon, R.L. (December 2006) The Respective Roles of Risk and Decision Analyses in Decision Support. Decision Analysis, 3(4), 1-13.

Paté-Cornell M.E. & Dillon, R.L. (February 2001) Success Factors and Future Challenges in the Management of Faster-Better-Cheaper Space Missions. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 48(1), 25-35.

Paté-Cornell, M.E. & Guikema, S.D. (2002) Probabilistic Modeling of Terrorist Threats: A Systems Analysis Approach to Setting Priorities Among Countermeasures. Military Operations Research, 7(4), 5-23.

Paté-Cornell, M.E., R.L. Dillon, & Guikema, S.D. (2004) On the Limitations of Redundancies in the Improvement of System Reliability. Risk Analysis, 24(6), 1423-1436.

Powell, R.A. & Buede, D.M. (2006) Decision-Making for Successful Product Development. Program Management Journal, 37(1), 22-40.

Tatman J.A. & Shachter, R.D. (March-April 1990) Dynamic Programming and Influence Diagrams. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 20(2).

Trainor, T., Parnell, G., Kwinn, B., Brence, J., & Tollefson, E., Downes, P. (May-June 2007) The US Army Uses Decision Analysis in Designing Its Installation Regions. Interfaces, 37(3), 253-264.

Ulvila, J.W. (1987) Postal automation (ZIP+4) technology: A decision analysis. Interfaces, 17(2), 1-12.

Ulvila, J.W., Brown, R.V., & Packard, K.S. (1977) A case in “on-line” decision analysis for product planning. Decision Sciences, 8(3), 598-615.

Ulvila, J.W. & Gaffney, J.E., Jr. (2004) A decision analysis method for evaluating computer intrusion detection systems. Decision Analysis, 1(1), 35-50.

Ulvila, J.W. & Gaffney Jr., J.E. (2003) Evaluation of intrusion detection systems. Journal of Research of the National Institute of Standards and Technology, 108(6), 453-473.

Ulvila, J.W., & Seaver, D.A. (1982) Decision analysis for water resource planning. Omega: The International Journal of Management Science, 10(2), 185-194.

Ulvila, J.W., & Thompson, B.B. (1988) A computerized risk analysis aid. Computers & Operations Research, 15(2), 123-134.

Westphal D., Szafranski R., & Parnell G. (Summer 2005) Strategic Planning for the Air Force: Leveraging Business Planning Insights to Create Future Value. Air Power: Journal of Air Power and Space Studies, Center for Air Power Studies, New Delhi, India, 2(2), 119-139. [Reprinted from Aerospace Power Journal]

Conference Papers

Bresnick, T.A. & Buede, D.M. Technology Transfer Risk: An Influence Diagram Approach. Paper presented at INFORMS Conference, Spring 1996, Wash. DC.

Bresnick, T.A., Buede, D.M. & Pisani, A. Cost Benefit Analysis of Airborne and Space-borne Reconnaissance Force Mixes. Paper presented and selected best in Decision Analysis Working Group at the MORS Conference, June 1997, Quantico, VA.

Buckshaw, Donald L. The Risk Assessment Model. Paper present at the 37th US Army Operations Research Symposium, October 1998, Fort Lee, VA.

Buckshaw, D., Buede, D., Parnell, G., & Maxwell, D. Selecting the Best Decision Method. Presentation for the Military Operations Research Society Symposium, June 2008.

Buckshaw, D. L. and Parnell, G. S. Portfolio Analysis of Countermeasures and Design Options for Information System Risk Assessments. Presented at the INFORMS Annual Conference, October 2004, Denver, CO.

Buckshaw, D. L. Information System Risk Assessment and Countermeasure Allocation Strategy. Paper presented at the MORS Special Session on Decision Aids/Support to Joint Operations, October 2003, Offutt AFB, NE.

Buckshaw, D. L. Information System Risk Assessment. 70th Military Operations Research Society Symposium, June 2002, Fort Leavenworth, KS.

Buede, D.M. Defining, Evaluating & Solving Complex Decision Situations. Paper presented at the Fall INFORMS Conference, October 1995, New Orleans, LA.

Buede, D.M. Risk/Decision Analysis for Trade Studies. Paper presented at the INCOSE Symposium, July 1995, St. Louis, MO.

Buede, D.M. A Normative System Application to a Political-Military Intelligence Analysis. Paper presented at the Normative Systems Workshop, May 1995, Fairfax, VA.

Buede, D.M. Applied Decision Analysis: Engineering Science vs. Clinical Art. Paper presented at the International Conference on Cybernetics and Society, 1979, Denver, CO. (397-403)

Buede, D.M. & Wagenhals, L. Influence Diagram Representation of Dynamic, Distributed Decision Making. Paper presented at the Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, June 1996, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA.

Cassidy, M. F. Group Decision Making – The Imperative and the Impediments. Presentation at TIMS/ORSA International Conference, April 1992.

Cassidy, M. F. & Schimmel, B.J. Using group techniques in evaluation. Workshop delivered at the American Evaluation National Conference, October 1988.

Gaffney, J.E., Jr. & Ulvila, J.W. Evaluation of intrusion detectors: a decision theory approach. Paper presented at the IEEE Symposium on Security and Privacy, 2001, Los Alamitos, CA. (50-61)

Kobylski, G.C. & Buede, D.M. The Use of Dynamic Decision Networks for Increasing Battle Command Situational Awareness. Paper presented at the MORS Conference, June 2004, Monterey, CA.

Kobylski, G.C. & Buede, D.M. Dynamic Decision Networks: An Alternative to Dynamic Programming for Situational Awareness in a Networked Battle Command. Paper presented at the MORS Conference, June 2004, Monterey, CA.

Madsen, D.L., Tatman, J.A., Mahoney, S.M., et al. Modeling an Adversary’s Decision Making Process. Paper presented at the 77th Military Operations Research Society Symposium, June 2009, Fort Leavenworth, KS.

Parnell, G., Buckshaw, D., Liebe, R., & Mosier, R. Using the Swing Weight Matrix to Improve Decision Analysis Studies. Presentation at the Military Operations Research Society Symposium, June 2008.

Shea, T.E., & Ulvila, J.W. Allocation of IAEA Inspection Effort. Paper presented at the 3rd Annual Symposium on Safeguards and Nuclear Material Management, European Safeguards Research and Development Association, 1981.

Ulvila, J.W., Gaffney, J.E., Jr. & Chinnis, J.O., Jr. Software risk metrics and tool. Paper presented at the 8th International Software Metrics Symposium, 2002, Los Alamitos, CA.

Ulvila, J.W. & Gaffney Jr., J.E. A management tool for software risk and uncertainty. Paper presented at the Planning, Budgeting, and Estimating Symposium 2001, Mt. Laurel, NJ.

Ulvila, J.W., Gaffney, J.E., Jr. & Chinnis, J.O., Jr. Software metrics decision support system. Paper presented at the 5th International Software Metrics Symposium, 1998, Los Alamitos, CA. (184-192)

Wood, T.W., Hunter, V.L., & Ulvila, J.W. A value of information approach to data quality objectives for the Hanford high-level waste tanks. Paper presented at the Proceedings of Waste Management 951995, University of Arizona, Tucson, AR.

Books

Watson, S.R. & Buede, D.M. (1987). Decision Synthesis: The Principles and Practice of Decision Analysis. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.

Parnell, G. S., Driscoll, P. J., and Henderson D. L., Editors, (2008) Decision Making for Systems Engineering and Management, Wiley Series in Systems Engineering, Andrew P. Sage, Editor, New York, NY., Wiley & Sons Inc.,

Book Chapters

Buckshaw, D. L. (2008) Use of Decision Support Techniques for Information System Risk Management. In Melnick, E. and Everitt, (Eds), Wiley Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Management. Forthcoming September 2008.

Dillon-Merrill, R. L., Parnell, G. S., & Buckshaw, D. L. (2009). Logic Trees: Fault, Success, Attack, Event, Probability, and Decision Trees. In Voeller, J.G. (Ed.), Wiley Handbook Of Science & Technology For Homeland Security. Published online: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Parnell, G. S., Chapter 19, Value-Focused Thinking, (2007) Methods for Conducting Military Operational Analysis, Military Operations Research Society, Editors Andrew Loerch and Larry Rainey 2007, 619-656.

Parnell, G. (2009) Evaluation of Risks in Complex Problems. In Williams, T., Sunnevåg, K., & Samset, K. (Eds.), Making essential choices with scant information: Front-end decision-making in major projects (230-256). Basingstoke, UK, Palgrave: MacMillian.

Parnell, G. S., Dillon-Merrill, R. L., & Bresnick, T. A. (2005) Integrating Risk Management with Homeland Security and Antiterrorism Resource Allocation Decision-MakingIn Kamien, D. (Ed.) The McGraw-Hill Handbook of Homeland Security (431-461). New York, NY.

Parnell, G. S., Figueira, J. R., & Bennett, S. (2007) Decision analysis tools for Safety, Security, and Sustainability of Ports and Harbors. In Linkov, I., Kiker, G., & Wenning, R. (Eds.), Managing Critical Infrastructure Risks (245-260). Netherlands: Springer.

Scouras, J., Parnell, G., Ayyub, B., & Liebe, R. (2009) Risk Analysis Frameworks for Counterterrorism. In Voeller, J.G. (Ed.) Wiley Handbook Of Science & Technology For Homeland Security. Published online: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Ulvila, J.W. (1989) Postal automation (ZIP + 4) technology: A decision analysis. In Assad, A.A. , Wasil, E.A. & Lilien, G.L. (Eds.), Excellence in management science practice: A readings book. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, Inc.

Ulvila, J.W. (1988) Postal automation (ZIP+4) technology: A decision analysis. In Render, B. and Heizer, J. (Eds.), Production and Operations Management. Newton, MA: Allyn & Bacon.

IDI Technical Reports

Buckshaw, D.L., Buede, D.M. & Parnell, G.A. (2004) An Analysis of Methodologies to Create a Multiple Adversary Risk Model for Information Assurance. IDI Technical Report 2004-01, Contract Number MDA904-02-D-0402.

Buckshaw, D.L., Parnell, G.S., Unkenholz, W.L., Parks, D.L., Wallner, J.M., & Saydjari, O.S. (2004) Mission Oriented Risk and Design Analysis of Critical Information Systems. IDI Technical Report 2004-02, Contract Number MDA904-02-D-0402

Buckshaw, D. L., Parnell, G. S., Unkenholz, W. L., Parks, D. L., Wallner, J. M. & Saydjari, O. S. (2004) Mission Oriented Risk and Design Analysis of Critical Information Systems. IDI Technical Report 2004-03, Contract Number MDA904-02-D-0402.

Buckshaw, D. L., Parnell, G. S., Unkenholz, W. L., & Parks, D. L. (2004) A Comparison of Aggregation Techniques for Mission Oriented Risk and Design Analysis (MORDA) Attack Values. IDI Technical Report 2004-04, Contract Number MDA904-02-D-0402.

Smith, Gary R., & Buckshaw, D. (2008) Evaluating methods for prioritizing alternatives. IDI Technical Report 2004-12, Contract Number H98230-07-C-0898.

Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis

Journal Papers

Buede, D.M. (November/December 1985) Structuring Value Systems. Interfaces, 52-62.

Buede, D.M. & Maxwell, D.T. (March 1995) Rank Disagreement: A Comparison of Multi-Criteria Methodologies. Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis4(1), 1-21.

Burk, R. C. & Parnell, G. S., (May-June 1997) Evaluating Future Space Systems and Technologies. Interfaces, 27(3), 60-73.

Costa, P.C.G.& Buede, D.M. (2000) Dynamic Decision Making: A Comparison of Approaches. Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, 9, 243-262.

Grelk, B. J., Kloeber, J. M., Jackson, J. A., Deckro, R. F., & Parnell, G. S. (Spring 1998) Quantifying CERCLA Using Site Decision Maker Values. Remediation, 87-105.

Guikema, S.D. & Milke, M. (1999). Quantitative Decision Tools for Conservation Program Planning: Practice, Theory, and Potential. Environmental Conservation26(3), 179-189.

Guikema, S.D. and Milke, M.W. (2003). Sensitivity Analysis for Multi-Attribute Project Selection Problems. Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems20(3), 143-162.

Jackson, J. A., Parnell, G. S., Jones, B. L., Lehmkuhl, L.J., Conley, H., & Andrew, J. (1997) Air Force 2025 Operational Analysis. Military Operations Research3(4), 5-21.

Keeney, R.L., Sicherman, A., Smith, G.R. (Sept.-Oct. 1985) Analyzing Radionuclide Emissions from Coal Fired Power Plants. Interfaces.

Keeney, R.L. & Smith, G.R. (Nov. 1982) Evaluating the Implications of Possible MC&A Regulations on Employees in Nuclear Facilities: IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics.

Lancaster, F.W., Ulvila, J.W., Humphrey, S. M., Smith, L.C., Allen, B., & Herner, S. (1996) Evaluation of interactive knowledge-based systems: Overview and model for empirical testing. Journal of the American Society for Information Science47(1), 57-69.

Maxwell, D.T. & Buede, D.M. (2005). Composing and Constructing Value Focused Influence Diagrams: A Specification for Decision Model Formulation. Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis12, 225 – 243.

Parnell, G., Burk, R., Schulman, A., Westphal, D., Kwan, L, Blackhurst, J., Verret, P, & Karasopoulos, H. (2004) Air Force Research Laboratory Space Technology Value Model: Creating Capabilities for Future Customers. Military Operations Research, 9(1), 5-17.

Parnell, G., Metzger, R., Merrick, J., & Eilers, R. (2001) Multiple Objective Decision Analysis of Theater Missile Defense Architectures. Systems Engineering4(1), 24-34.

Parnell, G., Conley, H., Jackson, J., Lehmkuhl, L, & Andrew, J. (1998) Foundations 2025: A Framework for Evaluating Future Air and Space Forces. Management Science, 44(10), 1336-1350.

Stafira, S., Parnell, G., & Moore, J. (October 1997) A Method for Evaluating Military Systems in a Counterproliferation Role. Management Science43(10), 1420-1430.

Westphal D., Szafranski R., & Parnell G. (Winter 1998) Strategic Planning for the Air Force: Leveraging Business Planning Insights to Create Future Value. Airpower Journal, XII(4), 29-40.

Books

Book Chapters

Adelman, L., & Ulvila, J.W. (1991) Evaluating expert system technology. In Andriole, S.J. and Halpin, S.M. (Eds.), Information technology for command and control. NY: IEEE Press, 537-547.

Parnell, G. S. (2007) Value-Focused Thinking. In Loerch, A. & Rainey, L., Methods for Conducting Military Operational Analysis: Military Operations Research Society (619-656).

Parnell, G. S. (2008) Multiple Objective Decision Analysis. In Voeller, J.G. (Ed.), Wiley Handbook of Science & Technology For Homeland Security. Published online: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Conference Papers

Carlson, M., Parnell, G., & Trainor, T. Assessing Security Cooperation Programs. Proceedings of the Conference on Systems Engineering Research (CSER), Redondo Beach, CA, April 4-5, 2008.

Cassidy, M. Applying decision conferencing to strategic planning. Lecture presented to the Military Academy of Portugal. Lisbon, Portugal, 2004.

Cassidy, M. F. Computer modeling and strategic decisions: Reconciling facts and judgments. Presentation at the Second International Conference on Management of Technology, March 1990.

Cassidy, M. Maximizing value: Realizing opportunities and avoiding errors in armament acquisition. Lecture delivered to The Portuguese Ministry of Defense, Lisbon, Portugal, 2004.

Cassidy, M. F. Decision Conferencing in the corporation: A rational perspective. Presentation at the TIMS/ORSA International Conference, October 1989.

Cassidy, M. F. Computer modeling and strategic decisions: Reconciling facts and judgments. Presentation at the Second International Conference on Management of Technology, March 1990.

Cassidy, M. F. & Rodriguez, J.A. PERFORM: A collaborative approach to translating employee performance requirements into job performance specifications. Presentation at AT&T Human Factors & Behavioral Sciences Symposium, October 1991.

Harris, J. & Parnell, G. S. BRAC 2005 Implementation. American Society for Engineering Management 25th National Conference, Alexandria, VA, October 20-23, 2004.

Parnell G., Jackson, J., & Kloeber, J. New Techniques for Value Model Development: Lessons Learned from Major Value-Focused Thinking Studies. Paper presented at the International Conference on Methods and Applications of Multicriteria Decision Making, Mons, Belgium, May 1997.

Parnell, G. & Trainor, T. Using the Swing Weight Matrix to Weight Multiple Objectives. Proceedings of the INCOSE International Symposium, Singapore, July 19-23, 2009.

Parnell, G. & West, P. Value-Focused Systems Decision Making. Paper presented at the 18th Annual International Symposium of INCOSE, Netherlands, June 15-19, 2008.

IDI Technical Reports

Probabilistic Inference Analysis

Journal Papers

Buede, D.M. (November/December 1988) Shafer-Dempster and Bayesian Reasoning: A Response to “Shafer-Dempster Reasoning with Applications to Multisensor Target Identification Systems.” IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, SMC-18(6), 1009-1011.

Buede, D.M. & Girardi, P. (September 1997) A Target Identification Comparison of Bayesian and Dempster-Shafer Multisensor Fusion. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 27 Part A(5), 569-577.

Fryback, D.G., Chinnis, J.O., & Ulvila, J. (2000) Bayesian cost-effectiveness analysis: An example using the GUSTO trial. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care, 17(1), 83-97.

Laskey, K. B. & Mahoney, S. M. (July/August 2000) Network Engineering for Agile Belief Network Models. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering12(7).

Laskey, K.B., Stanford, S. & Stibio, B. (1994) Probabilistic Reasoning for Assessment of Enemy Intentions, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics. 

Waltz, E.L. & Buede, D.M. (November/December 1986) Data Fusion and Decision Support for Command and Control. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, SMC-16(6), 865-879. Also in Boyes, J.L. and Andriole, S.J. (eds.), Principles of Command and Control,Washington, DC: AFCEA International Press, 1987; Andriole, S.J. and Halpin, S. (eds.) Information Technology for Command and Control, New York: IEEE Press, 1991; Luo, R.C. and Kay, M.G. (eds.), Multisensor Integration and Fusion for Intelligent Machines and Systems, Norwood, NJ: Ablex Publishing Corporation, 1995.

Books

Book Chapters

Buede, D.M. & Waltz, E.L. (1996) Benefits of Soft Sensors and Probabilistic Fusion. In Sadjadi, F.A. (ed.), Sensor and Data Fusion. Bellingham, WA: SPIE Optical Engineering Press. (First appeared in the SPIE Proceedings of Signal and Data Processing of Small Targets 1989, Technical Symposia on Aerospace Sensing, Orlando, 1989, 309-320.)

Buede, D.M. (1990) Bayesian and Dempster-Shafer Techniques. In Waltz, E.L. and Llinas, J. (Eds.), Data Fusion with Military Applications. Norwood, MA: ARTECH House, Inc.

Conference Papers

Brown, D & Mohler, R. Artificial Intelligence for Constructing Accurate, Low-Cost Models and Simulation. Paper presented and published in the proceedings of the 2005 I/ITSEC Conference.

Buede, D.M. & Bresnick, T.A. Learning Bayesian Networks for Intelligence Applications. Paper presented at the 1998 MORS Symposium, Monterey, CA, June 1998.

Buede, D. M. Comparison of Bayes Rule and the Fuzzy Subsethood Theorem. Paper presented at the 1994 Tri-Service Data Fusion Symposium, Johns Hopkins University, 1994.

Buede, D. M. Examination of the Fuzzy Subsethood Theorem for Data Fusion. Paper presented at the IEEE International Conference on Multisensor Fusion and Integration for Intelligent Systems, Las Vegas, NV, October 1994.

Buede, D.M. & Waltz, E.L. Issues in Sensor Management. Paper presented at the Fifth International Symposium on Intelligent Control, Philadelphia, PA, September 1990.

Buede, D.M., Martin, J.W. & Sipos, J.C. Comparison of Bayesian and Dempster-Shafer Fusion. Paper presented at the Tri-Service Data Fusion Symposium, Johns Hopkins University, 1989, 81-92.

Buede, D.M., Martin, J.W. & Sipos, J.C. AIFSARA: A Test Bed for Fusion, Situation Assessment and Response. Paper presented at the Fourth Annual Aerospace Applications of Artificial Intelligence, Dayton, OH, 1988, 335-344.

Krizan, M., Buede, D.M., & Bresnick, T.A. A Bayesian Belief Network Approach to Analyzing Indicators and Warning Data. Paper presented at the 1999 MORS Symposium, West Point, NY, June 1999.

Laskey, K. B., Mahoney, S. M. & Wright, E. (2001) Hypothesis Management in Situation-Specific Network Construction. In Breese, J. and Koller, D. (Eds.) Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence: Proceedings of the Seventeenth Conference. San Francisco, CA: Morgan Kaufmann.

Laskey, K.B. and Mahoney, S.M. Constructing Graphical Models by Combining Model Fragments. Paper presented at Valencia Conference, 1998.

Laskey, K. B. & Mahoney, S. M. (1998) Network Fragments for Knowledge-Based Construction of Belief Networks. In Haddawy (Ed.), Proceedings of the AAAI Workshop on Mixed Initiative Reasoning.

Laskey, K. B. & Mahoney, S. M. (1997) Network Fragments: Representing Knowledge for Constructing Probabilistic Models. In Geiger, D. and Shenoy, P. (Eds.) Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence: Proceedings of the Thirteenth Conference. San Francisco, CA: Morgan Kaufmann.

Mahoney, S.M. & Wright, E. Bayesian Network Engineering for Modeling Missile Defense Decisions. Printed in proceedings of the Meeting of the MSS Speciality Group on Missile Defense Sensors, Environments and Algorithms, Monterey, CA, 2002.

Mahoney, S. M, Laskey, K.B., Wright, E. & Ng, K.C. Measuring Performance for Situation Assessment. Paper presented at the MSS National Symposium on Sensor and Data Fusion, San Antonio, TX, June 2000.

Mahoney, S.M. & Laskey, K.B. (1999) Combining Partially Specified Conditional Probability Tables. Published in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence: Proceedings of the Fifteenth Conference. San Francisco, CA: Morgan Kaufmann.

Mahoney, S.M. & Laskey, K.B. (1996) Network Engineering for Complex Belief Networks. Published in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Proceedings of the Twelfth Conference. San Francisco, CA: Morgan Kaufmann, 389-396.

Musman S., & Buede D. Stopping Email Viruses by Reducing the Virus Infection Rate. Paper presented at the 3rd IEEE Information Assurance Workshop, West Point, N.Y., June 2002.

Roggemann, M.C. & Tatman, J.A. et al. An Approach to Multiple Sensor Target Detection. Presented at the SPIE Conference on Sensor Fusion, 1989.

Sticha, P.J., Buede, D.M., Rees, R.L. (2006). Bayesian Model of the Effect of Personality in Predicting Leader Behavior. Paper presented at the 4th Bayesian Modeling Applications Workshop of the 22nd Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Boston, MA.

Sticha, P., Buede, D.M., & Rees, R.L. (2005). It’s the People Stupid: The Role of Personality and Situational Variables in Predicting Decisionmaker Behavior. Paper presented at the 2005 MORS Symposium, West Point, NY.

Subject’s Decision Making. International Conference on Intelligence Analysis, McLean, VA, 2005.

Tatman, J., McGinnis, R., Newman, P., & Comstock, E. Testing Hypotheses Concerning the Status of a Uranium Enrichment Program Using Bayesian Networks. Paper presented at the 77th Military Operations Research Society Symposium, June 2009.

Tatman, J., Comstock, E., & Bartone, M. Modeling the Synergy of Persistence. Paper presented at the 74th Military Operations Research Society Symposium, June 2006.

IDI Technical Reports

Buede, D.M. (2001) Applications of Bayesian Networks to Intelligence Analysis. IDI Technical Report 2001-01.

Buckshaw, D.L., Tatman, J.A., Bresnick, T.A., & Buede, D.M. (2004) A Bayesian Network Approach for Identifying Suspicious Visitors. IDI Technical Report 2003-01. Contract Number MDA908-02-F-0303M.

Program and Budget Development

Journal Papers

Brown, P.C., Buede, D.M., Miller, J.B. & Thornton, J.R. (1992) A Revelation Scheme for Allocating Organizational Resources. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 18, 201-214.

Parnell, G., Engelbrecht, J., Szafranski R., & Bennett, E. (May-June 2002) Improving Customer Support Resource Allocation within the National Reconnaissance Office. Interfaces32(3), 77-90.

Parnell, G., Gimeno, B., Westphal, D, Engelbrecht, J., & Szafranski, R. (2001) Multiple Perspective R&D Portfolio Analysis for the National Reconnaissance Office’s Technology Enterprise. Military Operations Research6(3), 19-34.

Parnell, G. (July-August 2001) Practice Abstract, Work Package Ranking System for the Department of Energy’s Office of Science and Technology. Interfaces31(4), 109-111.

Books

Book Chapters

Ulvila, J.W., & Chinnis Jr.,J.O. (1992) Decision analysis for R&D resource management. In Kocaoglu, D.F. (Ed.), Management of R&D and engineering (144-162). Amsterdam, North-Holland.

Conference Papers

Leitch, S., Kuskey, K., Buede, D., & Bresnick, T. Of Princes, Frogs, and Marine Corps’ Budgets: Institutionalizing Decision Analysis over 23 Years. Paper presented at the INFORMS Conference, Philadelphia, PA, 8 Nov. 1999.

Stokes, B., Parnell, G., & Burk, R. Techniques For Allocating Budgets In Large Organizations: Benefit, Pain Or Value?. Paper presented at the American Society for Engineering Management Conference, Tampa, FL, October 2-5, 2002.

Stokes, B., Parnell, G., & Burk, R. Portfolio Analysis Using Multiple Objective Decision Analysis And Mathematical Programming. Paper presented at the American Society for Engineering Management Conference Huntsville, AL, October 11-13, 2001.

IDI Technical Reports/Presentations

Woodaman, R.F.A. Capital Budgeting, Partial Buys, Alternative Utility: Keys to a Better POM?. Paper presented at the 74th Military Operations Research Society Symposium, U.S. Air Force Academy, June 2006.

Woodaman, R.F.A., Liebe, R.M. & Glover, C.B. Navy Fire and Emergency Services Risk-based Resource Allocation. Paper presented at the INFORMS Annual Meeting, San Diego, CA, October 2009.

Woodaman, R.F.A., Loerch, A.G., & Hoffman, K. JIEDDO Portfolio Analysis Process. Paper presented at the INFORMS Annual Meeting, San Diego, CA, October 2009.

Process Modeling and Simulation

Journal Papers

Brown, (CMDR) D.P. (Jan-Feb 1999) Simulation Based Acquisition-Can It Live Up to Its Promises?. Program Manager. 

Cagnan, Z., Davidson, R.A. & Guikema, S.D. (2006). Post-Earthquake Restoration Planning for Los Angeles Electric Power. Earthquake Spectra22(3), 589-608.

DeMonsabert, S., Buede, D.M., & Vasilakopoulou, E. (1999) Process Modeling Approach to Privatization of Wastewater Treatment. Journal of Management in Engineering15(1), 54-61.

Guikema, S.D. & Gardoni, P. (2009). Reliability estimation for networks of reinforced concrete bridges. ASCE Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 15(2), 61-69.

Hodson, W. & Cassidy, M. (2005). Managing diversity: Shaping the diverse workforce of the future.” The International Journal of Diversity2.

Kennedy, D., Parnell, G., & Rowell, W. (November-December 1988) An Expert System for Satellite Support Scheduling. Interfaces18(6), 28-34.

Books

Brown, D.P. (2008) Rapid, Low Cost Modeling and Simulation: Integrating Bayesian and Neural Networks as an Alternative to an Equation-Based Approach. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany: VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co.

Book Chapters

Conference Papers

Cassidy, M. (2002). Workforce analysis: Moving from description to prediction using system dynamic modeling. Paper presented at the SHRM Dulles Chapter Conference, September 2002.

Cassidy, M. (2002). Workforce analysis using system dynamic modeling. Paper presented at the Washington Area Corporate University Consortium, November 2002.

Hodson, W. & Cassidy, M. (July 2004). Managing diversity: Shaping the diverse workforce of the future. The Fourth International Conference on diversity in Organizations, Communities and NationsUniversity of California-Los Angeles, CA, July 2004.

Walther, J., Marvin, F.F., & Hayes, S.A. Use of operations research models in validation of the BW improved response Template. Paper presented at the 67th Military Operations Research Society Symposium, West Point, NY, 1999. (Selected as best working group paper.)

IDI Technical Reports

Woodaman, R.F.A. “Agent-Based Simulation of Military Operations Other Than War Small Unit Combat”, Military Operations Research Society Education Colloquium, Ft. Belvoir, March 2001.

Systems Engineering

Journal Papers

Brown, David (CMDR). (Mar-Apr 2000). Building a Better Mousetrap. Program Manager.

Buede, D.M. (1998). The Air Bag System: What Went Wrong with the Systems Engineering. Systems Engineering, 1(1), 90-94.

Buede, D.M. (April 1997) Developing Originating Requirements: Defining the Design Problem. IEEE Transactions on Aerospace and Electronic Systems33(2), 596-609.

Buede, D.M. and Choisser, R.W. (July 1992) Providing an Analytic Structure for Key System Design Choices. Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis1(1), 17-28.

Buede, D.M., Yates, G., and W., C. (July/August 1985) Concept Design of a Program Manager’s Decision Support System. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and CyberneticsSMC-15(4), 457-468. Also in Sage, A.P. (ed.), System Design for Human Interaction, New York, NY: IEEE Press, 1987.

Cassidy, M. F., Brady, K. A., Schimmel, B. J., & Rodriguez, J. A. (1994). Understanding quality in training and education services”. Performance Improvement Quality7(4). 

Cassidy, M. F., Schimmel, B. J., & Brady, K.A. (1993). Defining training & education customer requirements. Performance Improvement Quarterly6(2).

Farr, J.V. & Buede, D.M. (September 2003) Systems Engineering and Engineering Management: Keys to the Efficient Development of Products and Services. Engineering Management Journal:American Society of Engineering Management, 15(3), 3 – 11.

Hale, G., Jackson, J. & Parnell, G. (1997) Assessing Communications Systems for the Australian Defense Force. Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research14, 45-67.

Larsen, R.F. & Buede, D.M. (2002) Theoretical Framework for the Continuous Early Validation (CEaVa) Method. Systems Engineering, 5(3), 223-241.

Papatyi, A. F., Deckro, R. F., Parnell, G. S., Jackson, J. A., & Kloeber, J. M. (Winter 1997) Screening Technology Trains for DNAPL Remediation. Remediation, 87-105.

Parnell, G., Jackson, J., Burk, R., Lehmkuhl L, & Engelbrecht, J. (1999) R&D Concept Decision Analysis: Using Alternate Futures for Sensitivity Analysis. Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis8, 119-127.

Paté-Cornell, M.E., Dillon, R.L. & Guikema, S.D. (February 2004) On the Limitations of Redundancies in the Improvement of System Reliability. Risk Analysis, 24(6), 1423-1436.

Rayno, B., Parnell, G., Burk, R., & Woodruff, B. (1997) A Methodology to Assess the Utility of Future Space Systems. Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis6, 344-54.

Salter, C.P. & Buede, D.M. (2001) A Lifecycle-Based Method for the Acquisition of Commercial-off-the-Shelf (COTS) Technology to Support Organizational Processes. Systems Engineering, 4(4), 287-304.

Books

Buede, D.M. (2000) The Engineering Design of Systems: Methods and Models. New York, NY: Wiley.

Parnell, G. S., Driscoll, P. J., & Henderson D. L. (Eds) (2008) Decision Making for Systems Engineering and ManagementWiley Series in Systems Engineering. A.P. Sage, (Ed). Wiley & Sons Inc. <http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470165707.html>.

Book Chapters

Buede, D.M. (1999) Functional Analysis. In A.P Sage & W.B. Rouse (Eds.), Handbook of Systems Engineering and Management (997-1036). New York, NY: Wiley & Sons Inc.

Cassidy, M. F. & Bowman, R.W. (1988). A model for anticipating R&D employee training needs. In T. Khalil, B. Bayraktar, & J. Edsomwan, (eds), Technology Management. Switzerland: Interscience Enterprises Ltd.

Conference Papers

Bresnick, T.A., Annis, C.P., & Buede, D.M. (September 1982) A Multi-attribute Utility Approach to Communicating Acquisition Requirements to Industry: USMC Mobile Protected Weapons System. PHALANX15(3), 11-14.

Buede, D.M. On Trade Studies. Paper presented at the INCOSE Symposium, Toulouse, France, 2004.

Buede, D.M. The Concepts of Systems Engineering as Practiced by the Wright Brothers. Paper presented at the INCOSE Symposium, Las Vegas, NV, July 2002. (Selected as best paper.)

Buede, D.M. & da Costa, P. A Graph Theoretic Architecture for Dual Control: Decision Making in Multisensor Systems. Paper presented at the 1999 MORS Symposium, West Point, NY, June 1999.

Buede, D.M. Dynamic Decision Networks: An Approach for Solving the Dual Control Problem. Paper presented at the Spring INFORMS, Cincinnati, OH, May 1999.

Buede, D.M. Integrating Requirements Development and Decision Analysis. Paper presented at the IEEE International Conference on Systems (1574-1579), Man and Cybernetics, Orlando, FL, October 1997.

Buede, D.M. The Use of Systems Engineering Tools in the Classroom. Featured paper at the INCOSE Symposium, St. Louis, MO, July 1995.

Buede, D.M., Ring, J., & Bolling, F. Wouldn’t it be great!! Design and Test Studio for Systems Engineering. Paper present at the Integrating Practice into Engineering Education, Detroit, MI, October 3-5, 2004.

Buede, D.M. The Air Bag System: What Went Wrong with the Systems Engineering?. Paper presented at the INCOSE Symposium, Los Angeles, CA, August 1997.

Buede, D.M. Engineering Design Using Decision Analysis. Paper presented at the IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, San Antonio, TX, October 1994.

Buede, D.M., Farr, J., Powell, R., & Verma, D. Considerations in the Design of an Air Traffic Management System. Paper presented at the Digital Avionics Systems Conference, Irvine, CA, October 2002. (Selected as best paper.) Also published in October 2003, IEEE Aerospace and Electronic Systems Magazine18(10), 3-8.

Buede, D.M., Perdu, D., & Wagenhals, L. Modeling the Functionality of the C2 Element of the National Missile Defense System. Presented at the BRG Symposium on C2 Research, National Defense University, Washington, DC, June 1993.

Buede, D.M. & Powell, R.A. A Conceptual Decision Architecture for the Systems Engineering Development Process. Paper presented at the INCOSE Symposium, Melbourne, Australia, July 2001.

Buede, D.M. and Snyder, F.J. Managing All of the Risk. Paper presented at the INCOSE-MARC Symposium (10.3-1-8), Reston, VA, April 2000.

Buede, D.M. & Charbonneau, S. Considerations in Developing Originating Requirements. Presented at the INCOSE Symposium, Los Angeles, CA, August 1997.

Cassidy, M. F. Reconciling facts and judgments in needs assessment. Invited paper presented at the Excellence in Education Conference, Indiana University, June 1989.

Eilers, R., Parnell, G., & Metzger, R. A Multi-Objective Value Model Methodology for Evaluating Complex Multi-System Architecture. Paper presented at the International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE) Mid-Atlantic Regional Conference, Systems Engineering: People, Processes, Technology, and Systems, April 6 -8, 2000.

Kitterman, R.W. & Buede, D.M. System-level Requirements Definition under a Revised DoD Acquisition Process. Paper presented at the NOSE Symposium, Arlington, VA, July 1993.

Larsen, B. & Buede, D.M. A Second Application of the CEaVa Module. Paper presented at the INCOSE Symposium, Melbourne, Australia, July 2001.

Larsen, B. & Buede, D.M. An Example How the CEaVa Module Saves Resources. Paper presented at the INCOSE Symposium, Minneapolis, MN, July 2000, 731-738.

Larsen, B. & Buede, D.M. Case Study Summary Using Early Validation Module. Paper presented at the INCOSE-MARC Symposium, Reston, VA, April 2000, 18.1-1 – 8.

Larsen, B. & Buede, D.M. A Plug-and-Play Early Validation Module. Paper presented at the INCOSE Symposium, Brighton, England, June 1999, pp. 87-94.

Madsen, D.L. (CAPT, USN) USN C4I Migration to A Service Oriented Architecture and Common Computing Environment.Paper presented at the National Defense Industrial Association Net Centric Operations Conference, March 2007, Norfolk, VA.

Madsen, D.L. (CAPT, USN) Systems Architectures: A System of Systems Viewpoint. Paper presented at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology 2003 Systems Engineering Conference, October 2003, Cambridge, MA.

Parnell, G. S. Creating High Value Future Architectures. Paper presented at the Eleventh Annual International Symposium of the International Council on Systems Engineering, Melbourne, Australia, July 1-5, 2001.

Schneider, R.E. & Buede, D.M. Properties of a High Quality Informal Requirements Document. Paper presented at the INCOSE Symposium, Minneapolis, MN, July 2000, 377-384.

Schneider, R.E. & Buede, D.M. Criteria for Selecting Properties of a High Quality Informal Requirements Document. Paper presented at the INCOSE-MARC Symposium, Reston, VA, April 2000, 7.2-1 – 6.

Snyder, F. J., Parnell, G. S., & Klimack, W. K. Modeling the Cost Objective: Insight for Practitioners and Academicians. Paper presented at the Annual International Symposium of the International Council on Systems Engineering, Las Vegas, NV, July 28-August 1, 2002.

Snyder, F. J. & Parnell, G. S. Modeling the Cost Objective in a Decision Maker’s Value Structure. Paper presented at the American Society for Engineering Management Conference, Huntsville, AL, October 11-13, 2001.

Snyder, F. J. & Parnell, G. S. Modeling the Cost Objective in a Decision Maker’s Value Structure. Paper presented at the Eleventh Annual International Symposium of the International Council on Systems Engineering, Melbourne, Australia, July 1-5, 2001.

Snyder, F.J. & Buede, D.M. Risk and Performance. Paper presented at the INCOSE Symposium, Minneapolis, MN July 2000, 503-510.

Trainor, T. & Parnell, G. Using Stakeholder Analysis to Define the Problem in Systems Engineering. Paper presented at the International Conference, International Committee on Systems Engineering, San Diego, CA, June 24-28, 2007.

IDI Technical Reports

Optimization and Statistical Analysis

Journal Papers

Griggs, B., Parnell, G., & Lehmkuhl, L. (September-October 1997). An Air Mission Planning Algorithm Using Decision Analysis and Mixed Integer Programming. Operations Research45(5), 662-676.

Guikema, S.D. (2009). Natural Disaster Risk Analysis for Critical Infrastructure Systems: An Approach Based on Statistical Learning Theory. Reliability Engineering and System Safety94(4), 855-860.

Guikema, S.D. (2006). Incentive Compatible Resource Allocation in Engineering Design. Engineering Optimization38(2), 209-226.

Guikema, S.D. & Coffelt, J.P. (2008). A Flexible Count Data Regression Model for Risk Analysis. Risk Analysis28(1), 213-221.

Guikema, S.D. & J.P. Coffelt. (2009). Modeling Count Data for Non-Linear, Complex Infrastructure Systems. ASCE Journal of Infrastructure Systems15(3), 172-178.

Guikema, S.D., Davidson, R.A. & Liu, H. (2006). Statistical Models of the Effects of Tree Trimming on Power System Outages. IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, 21(3), 1549-1557.

Guikema, S.D. & Paté-Cornell, M.E. (2002). Component Choice for Managing Risk in Engineered Systems with Generalized Risk/Cost Functions. Reliability Engineering and System Safety78(3), 227-238.

Han, S.-R., Guikema, S.D., and Quiring, S.M. (2009). Improving the Predictive Accuracy of Hurricane Power Outage Forecasts using Generalized Additive Models. Risk Analysis, 29(10), 1443-1453.

Han, S., Guikema, S.D., Quiring, S.M., Lee, K., Rosowsky, D., & Davidson, R.A. (2009). Estimating the Spatial Distribution of Power Outages during Hurricanes in the Gulf Coast Region. Reliability Engineering & System Safety94(2), 199-210.

Heidelberg, H., Parnell, G., & Ames, J. (1998). An Off-Line Bin Parking Algorithm for Cargo Conveyance Systems. Naval Research Logistics45, 751-768.

Lord, D., S.D. Guikema, & S. Geedipally. (2008). Application of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson Generalized Linear Model for Analyzing Motor Vehicle Crashes. Accident Analysis and Prevention30(3), 1123-1134.

Sanchez-Silva, M., Rosowsky, D., and Guikema, S.D. (2009). Decision-Based Optimization Model for Design and Operation of Transportation Networks in Seismic Regions. Journal of Infrastructure Systems15(2), 70-79.

Torres, J., Guikema, S.D., and Brumbelow, K. (2009). Classification and Uncertainty Propagation for Virtual Water Distribution Systems. Reliability Engineering & System Safety [accepted January 2009].

Xu, N., Guikema, S.D., Davidson, R.A., Nozick, L.K., Çağnan, Z., & Vaziri, K. (2007). Optimizing Scheduling of Post-Earthquake Electric Power Restoration Tasks. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics36(12), 265-284.

Yamijala, S., Guikema, S.D. & Brumbelow, K. 2009. Statistical Estimation of Water Distribution System Pipe Reliability. Reliability Engineering & System Safety94(2), 282-293.

Books

Book Chapters

Conference Papers

Cassidy, M. Building a quality consulting center. Symposium conducted at the 1st Semi-Annual CDAS Statistics Conference, United States Military Academy, West Point, NY, 2005.

Sticha, P.J., Blacksten, R., & Buede, D.M. Optimization of Simulation-Based Training Systems. Paper presented at the IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Atlanta, GA, 1986, 1373-1377.

IDI Technical Reports

Cassidy, M. (2003). Error rates and processing time: An experimental investigation of operator performance using an automated natural language algorithm. Classified Technical Report. Washington, DC

Cassidy, M. & Hodson, W. (2004). 2003 Annual report on hiring and retention of minority employees in the intelligence community. Prepared for the House Permanent Subcommittee on Intelligence, Washington, DC.

Cassidy, M. & Hodson, W. (2005). 2004 Annual report on hiring and retention of minority employees in the intelligence community. Prepared for the House Permanent Subcommittee on Intelligence, Washington, DC.

Cassidy M. & Hodson, W. (2007). An experimental evaluation of recall, precision, average precision, ranking, relative recall, and rank order correlation of two name-trace search engines. Classified Technical Report, Washington, DC.

Strategic Planning Off-Sites

Journal Papers

Carper, W.B., & Bresnick, T.A. (September-October 1989) Strategic planning conferences. Indiana University Graduate School of Business. Business Horizons, 32(5), 34-40.

Kuskey, K. P. (May 1994). New Directions and Strategies for the Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers: Recommendations of the SNAME Ad Hoc Strategic Planning Group. Marine Technology, 2, 23-30.

Books

Book Chapters

Conference Papers

IDI Technical Reports

Decision Conferences

Journal Papers

Books

Book Chapters

Cassidy, M. “Principles and Practices of Group Decision Making”, Book chapter for The Handbook of Human Performance Technology, 2nd edition, Fall 2005. (In press).

Conference Papers

Buede, D.M. Building Models with Groups. Paper presented at the INFORMS Conference, New Orleans, LA, October 1995.

Buede, D.M. Decision Conferences at Decisions and Designs, Inc. Paper presented at the World Future Society, Washington, D.C., 18 July 1982.

IDI Technical Reports

Research in Decision Making

Journal Papers

Adelman, L., Bresnick, T., Christian, M., Gualtieri, J., & Minionis, D. Demonstrating the effect of context on order effects for an army air defense task using the Patriot simulator. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10, 1997.

Adelman, L., Bresnick, T.A., Black, P.K., Marvin, F.F., & Sak, S.G. (June 1996) Research with Patriot air defense officers: Examining information order effects. Human Factors, 250-261.

Adelman, L., Cohen, M.S., Bresnick, T.A., Chinnis, J.O., Jr., & Laskey, K.B. (1993) Real-time expert system interfaces, cognitive processes, and task performance: An empirical assessment. Human Factors35(2), 243-261.

Cassidy, M. & Buede, D. (2009). Does the accuracy of expert judgment comply with common sense?. Caveat emptor. Management Decision, 47(3), 454-469

Cassidy, M., Nicholl, C., Ross, C. & Lonsway, K. (2004). The victim’s view: Domestic violence and the police response. Law enforcement Executive FORUM4, 135-152.

Kobylski, G.C., Buede, D.M., Farr, J.V., and Peters, D. (2008). The Use of Dynamic Decision Networks to Increase Situational Awareness in Networked Battle Command, Military Operations Research13(2), 47-63.

Laskey, K. B., D’Ambrosio, B., Levitt, T., & Mahoney, S. (2000). Limited Rationality in Action: Decision Support for Military Situation Assessment. Minds and Machines. 

Retchless, T., Maxwell, D.T., Kobylski, G.C., Buede, D.M., and Smith, G. (2007). Integrating Decision Networks with Battle Command. 2007 MORS Symposium, Annapolis, MD.

Books

Book Chapters

Cassidy, M. (in press). Diversity by design: Creating cognitive conflict to enhance group performance. In Schuman, S. (Ed.), The handbook for working with difficult groups.San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass/Wiley.

Cassidy, M.F. & Cassidy M.M. (2006). Principles and practices of group decision making. In Pershing, J. (Ed.), The handbook of human performance technology: Principles, practices, and potential3nd edition. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley & Sons Inc.

Conference Papers

Cassidy, M., Nicholl, C., Ross, C. & Lonsway, K. Domestic violence: How Mandatory arrest and pro-arrest policies are missing the mark. Paper presented at the World Congress of Criminology, Société Internationale de Criminologie, August 2003.

Kobylski, G.C, Buede, D.M., and Smith, G. (2006). A Methodology to Assist FCS Leaders Make ‘Better’ Decisions, 2006 MORS Symposium, Air Force Academy, CO.

Kobylski, G.C. and Buede, D.M.(2005). “Making Complex Battlefield Decisions Less Complex with Dynamic Decision Networks, 2005 MORS Symposium, West Point, NY.

Kobylski, G.C. Buede, D.M. and Farr, J.V. (2005). Optimizing Time Sensitive Decisions in a Networked Battle Command, 2005 MORS Symposium, West Point, NY.

IDI Technical Reports

Others

Journal Papers

Brown, D. P. (CMDR). (Spring 2009). Enterprise Architecture for DoD Acquisition. Acquisition Quarterly Review.

Brown, D.P. & McVay, T. (March-April 2005). Weblog Technology for Program Management. Defense AT&L Magazine.

Brown, D. P. (November-December 2002). Building Communities of Practice. Program Manager Magazine, page #’s.

Brown, R.V., Lilien, G.L., & Ulvila, J.W. (1993). New methods for estimating business markets. Journal of Business to Business Marketing1(2): 33-65.

Brown, R.V. & Ulvila, J.W. (1998) Does a reactor need a safety backfit? Case study on communicating decision and risk analysis information to managers. Risk Analysis8(2), 271-282.

Buede, D.M. (January 1992) Superior Design Features of Decision Analytic Software. Computers and Operations Research, 19(1), 43-58.

Buede, D.M. & Ferrell, D.O. (May/June 1993). Convergence in Problem Solving: A Prelude to Quantitative Analysis. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 23(3), 746-765.

Powell, R.A. and Buede, D.M. (2006). Decision-Making for Successful Product Development. Program Management Journal(37)1, 22-40.

Cassidy, M. F. (1980). The effects of sensory versus semantic encoding instructions, study time, and retrieval cues on memory for pictures. Ph.D. Dissertation. Bloomington, IN: Indiana University.

Cassidy, M. F. (1982). Toward integration: Semiotics, instructional technology, and education. Educational Communications and Technology Journal. 

Cassidy, M. F. & Knowlton, J. Q. (1983). Visual literacy: A Failed Metaphor, Educational Communications and Technology Journal.

Cassidy, M & Lonsway, K. (2004). The police response to victims of sexual assault. Law & Order.

Cassidy, M., Nicholl, C., Ross, C. & Lonsway, K. (January 1004) The Victim’s View: Domestic Violence and the Police Response. Law enforcement Executive FORUM4(1), 135 – 152.

Chatterjee, K., & Ulvila, J.W. (1982). Bargaining with shared information. Decision Sciences13(3), 380-404.

Cho, H., Olivera, F., & Guikema S.D. (2009). A Derivation of the Number of Minima of the Griwank Function. Applied Mathematics and Computation [accepted August 2008].

D’Ambrosio, B., M. Takikawa, D. Upper, J. Fitzgerald, S. Mahoney,(2001) Security Situation Assessment and Response Evaluation (SSARE), proceedings of DISCEX-II, Los Angeles, CA.

Hodson, W. & Cassidy, M. (Spring 2005) Managing Diversity: Shaping the Diverse Workforce of the Future. The International Journal of Diversity, (In press).

Narajan, D. & Cassidy, M.F. (August 2001). A Dimensional Approach to Measuring Social Capital: Development and Validation of a Social Capital Inventory. Current Sociology, 49(2).

Short, D., Cassidy, M., Dewey, J. & Van Buren, M. (2000). Ten roles to support Research-to-Practice in Organizations. Human Resource Development Quarterly.

Smith, G.R. (April 1980). Textured Sets: An Approach to Aggregation Problems with Multiple Concerns. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics.

Ulvila, J.W. (2000) Building relationships between consultants and clients. American Behavioral Scientist43(10): 1667-1680.

Ulvila, J.W. (1988) 20/30 hindsight: The automatic zipper. Interfaces18(1), 74-77.

Ulvila, J.W. (1985) Decision trees for forecasting. Journal of Forecasting: Special Issue on Perspectives from Decision Analysis4(4), 377-385.

Ulvila, J.W. (1983) On the value of assessing preferences explicitly for bargaining. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and CyberneticsSMC-13(2), 125-136.

Ulvila, J.W., & Snider, W.D. (1980) Negotiation of international oil tanker standards. Operations Research28(1): 81-96.

Woodaman, R.F.A. (June 1998) Hazing Vs. Leadership. Marine Corps Gazette, 82(6), 49-50.

Woodaman, R.F.A. (July 1998) Artillery, Tanks, and LAVs, Oh My! Another MEU Viewpoint. Marine Corps Gazette82(7), 40-41.

Woodaman, R.F.A. & Liebe, R. M. (July 2002) Value of Resident PME: Results and Recommendations from 2001 PME Study. Marine Corps Gazette86(7), 30-33.

Books

Bolkcom, C.C. & Tatman, J.A. (1997) US Military R&D Portfolio.Jane’s Information Group.

Powell, R. & Buede, D.M. Decision Making for Project Managers, Management Concepts, 2009.

Book Chapters

Brown, R.V. & Ulvila, J.W. Communicating uncertainty for regulatory decisions. In Covello, V.T., Lave, L.B, Moghissi, A., and Uppuluri, V.R.R. (Eds.), Uncertainty in risk assessment, risk management, and decision making (177-187). New York, NY: Plenum Press.

Ulvila, J.W. & Brown, R.V. (1986) Decision analysis comes of age. In Mansfield, E. (Ed.), Managerial economics and operations research (page #’s). New York, NY: W.W. Norton.

Conference Papers

Bresnick, T.A. & Buede, D.M. Web-based financial decision analysis. Paper presented at Spring INFORMS, Montreal, CA, April 1998.

Cassidy, M. F. Managing for Employee Satisfaction. Marymount University Business Leaders series, June 2003.

Constantine, M.M., & Ulvila, J.W. (1990) Testing knowledge-based systems: The state of the practice and suggestions for improvement. Expert Systems with Applications1(3), 237-248.

Deckro, R., Kloeber, J., Parnell, G., & Jackson, J. Cyber-Research Road Warriors: Rules of the Road. Paper present at the Twenty-Ninth Annual Meeting of the Western Decision Science Institute, April 2000, 610 – 614.

Kabrisky, M., Tatman, J.A. et al. The First Cortical Implant of a Multiplexed Multi-Electrode Semiconductor Brain Electrode. Presented at the AAIA Conference, Dayton/Cincinnati, OH, 1983.

Kwin, M., Pohl, E., & Parnell, G. Rapid Framework Development and Analysis using Technology. Presented at the IEEE International Engineering Management Conference (IEMC -2003): Managing Technologically Driven Organizations: “The Human Side of Innovation and Change,” Albany, New York, 2-4 November 2003.

Lehner, P.E., & Ulvila, J.W. Procedures for using classical statistics for evaluating the knowledge base of an expert system. Paper presented at the Symposium on Command and Control Research, Monterey, CA, June 1990.

Liebe, R. M. Operations Analysis in Support of Marine Forces in Operation Iraqi Freedom. Presentation to Military Operations Research Society Education Colloquium, West Point, NY, April 2004.

Parnell, G., Blair, J., Carver, C., Ray, C., & Matthews, M. Genesis of the New Information Systems Engineering Program at the United States Military Academy at West Point. Paper presented at the International Conference on Information Systems and Engineering (ISE 2003), Montreal, Quebec CanadaJuly 20 – 25, 2003.

Parnell, G., Ezell, B., Haimes, Y., & Lambert, J. Designing a OOTW Knowledge Hierarchy for a OOTW Decision Support System for Military. Paper presented at the IEEE Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Conference, October 2000.

Tatman, J.A. et al. START II Study. Paper presented at the Military Operations Research Society Symposium, June 11-13, 1991. (Arms Control Working Group Best Paper Award)

Ulvila, J.W. A mediator’s perspective on bargaining dynamics: Some analytical suggestions. Paper presented at the International Conference on Cybernetics and Society, New York, NY, 1980, 219-224.

Ulvila, J.W., Constantine, M.M., & Adelman, L. Testing knowledge-based systems. Paper presented at the Test Technology Symposium III, U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command, Aberdeen, MD, 1990.

Walther, J., Marvin, F.F., & Hayes, S.A. Use of operations research models in validation of the BW improved response Template. Paper presented at the 67th Military Operations Research Society Symposium, West Point, NY, 1999. (Selected as best working group paper)

Watson, S.R., Weiss, J.J., & Donnell, M.L. Fuzzy Decision Analysis. Paper presented at the IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, January 9, 1979, 1-9.

Film

Cassidy, M.F., & Reeder, R.A. (1976). A film about Allen Ginsberg. (15 mins; 16mm.

Motion picture; produced in collaboration with Allen Ginsberg. Shown at the Berlin

Film Festival.

IDI Technical Reports

Bresnahan, S. & Woodaman, R.F.A. (June 2007). Cost Risk Analysis of Satellite Bandwidth Services. 2007 Joint ISPA/SCEA International Conference, New Orleans, LA.

Cassidy, M. (June 4, 2002). Good people skills help managers retain good people. Washington Business Journal.

Cassidy, M. (2007). An investigation into the Skill Performance Certificate program for limb impaired and amputee commercial truck drivers. DOT – FMCSA Publication. Washington, D.C.: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration.

Cassidy, M. & Navarrett, J. (2009). Airport passenger-related processing rates guidebook. (ACRP REPORT 23). Washington, D.C: The National Academies of Sciences, Transportation Research Board.

Conway, M. & Cassidy, M. (2001). Evaluating trainer effectiveness. Washington, D.C.: ASTD Info-Line.

Conway, M. & Cassidy, M. F. (2000). Measuring customer loyalty and satisfaction. Washington, DC: ASTD Info-line.

Woodaman, R.F.A. Analytical Support to MARCENT during Operation IRAQI FREEDOM. Composite Group Briefing, 74th Military Operations Research Society Symposium, U.S. Air Force Academy, June 2006.

Woodaman, R.F.A. & Calhoun, T.R. Strategic Business Team Assessment. 74th Military Operations Research Society Symposium, U.S. Air Force Academy, June 2006.