John F. Lathrop

Executive Principal Analyst

Dr. Lathrop has over forty years of experience in the theoretical development and practical application of decision support technologies for risk management and risk assessment. He is currently Chair of the Applied Risk Management Specialty Group of the Society for Risk Analysis. Recent work focuses on terrorism risk management, combining advanced concepts of games against an adversary, multiattribute utility analysis and SME elicitation at the model architecture level. He has reviewed, built or added to ten terrorism risk models for DHS, DOE and the Coast Guard. Other risk work includes utility long range strategic planning for climate change, WMD incident management, siting of large hazardous facilities and transportation of oil, hazmat and spent nuclear fuel. Strategic decision support work includes siting of major facilities and transmission lines. He has worked on over 70 projects for 40 clients, including 12 corporations, 8 utilities, 16 government agencies, 2 national laboratories, ITE and IEEE.


Ph.D., Dual: Economics and Experimental Psychology, University of Michigan, 1979
M.A., Experimental Psychology, University of Michigan, 1972
B.S., Physics, Harvey Mudd College, 1970

Selected Publications and Presentations

Lathrop, J. and B. Ezell, Validating terrorism risk assessment models – Lessons learned from eleven models, in A. Abbas, M. Tambe and D. von Winterfeldt (eds.), Improving Homeland Security Decisions, Cambridge University Press, June 2017.

Lathrop, J. and B. Ezell, Validation in the Absence of Observed Events, Risk Analysis, 36(4) April 2016.  Special issue: Adversary Behavior: Validating the Models.

Lathrop, J. and J. Post, The Modeler Meets the SME: The challenge of integrating quantitative and qualitative models of terrorist decision making, Democracy and Security, 8 (3) September 2012.

Buede, D., S. Mahoney, B. Ezell and J. Lathrop, Using Plural Modeling for Predicting Decisions Made by Adaptive Adversaries, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 108 Fall 2012.

Lathrop, J. and R. Ross, Probabilistic adversary choice modeling for counter-terrorism strategy: Important problems and solutions, presentation to DHS DNDO and S&T, LLNL-PRES-421862, Official Use Only, Dec 2009.

Lathrop, J., T. Edmunds, M. Bland and A. Ross, Make, Buy, Steal Risk Management Model, MBS2.0, presentation to several audiences, LLNL-PRES-421422, OUO, Dec 2009.